A scratch card's printed odds usually count every prize, including ones that only refund your ticket. Italy publishes full tables for its tickets, and they show the gap: an average of 1 in 3.6 wins something, but on a typical €5 ticket only about 1 in 7 to 8 pays more than it cost, and tickets pay back 59% to 85% of their price on average.
What do scratch card odds actually count?
Overall odds are the number of tickets printed divided by the number of winning tickets. They say nothing about prize size, and winners are spread at random, so 1 in 4 never means every fourth ticket wins. Prize tables differ by country and by game, so check your own lottery's table for the card in your hand. The method below works on any of them.
A full table: Italy's Gratta e Vinci
Prices in euros. Figures are from each ticket's published prize table, read on 5 November 2026. Average payback is our arithmetic: total prize money divided by the value of all the tickets.
| Ticket | Price | Any prize | More than cost | Average payback | Top prize |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monetine Fortunate | €1 | 1 in 3.98 | 1 in 10.2 | 59% | €10,000: 1 in 4,320,000 |
| Buongiorno | €2 | 1 in 3.81 | 1 in 9.29 | 63% | €100,000: 1 in 11,760,000 |
| Fai Scopa New | €2 | 1 in 4.03 | 1 in 9.97 | 65% | €100,000: 1 in 6,720,000 |
| Numeri Fortunati | €3 | 1 in 3.71 | 1 in 7.15 | 68% | €200,000: 1 in 8,160,000 |
| Nuovo 15X | €3 | 1 in 3.71 | 1 in 7.15 | 68% | €200,000: 1 in 8,640,000 |
| Il Miliardario | €5 | 1 in 4.01 | 1 in 7.84 | 73.4% | €500,000: 1 in 6,000,000 |
| New Turista per Sempre | €5 | 1 in 3.65 | 1 in 7.1 | 72.6% | €1,936,849: 1 in 4,560,000 |
| Tutto per Tutto | €5 | 1 in 4.02 | 1 in 7.97 | 72% | €500,000: 1 in 9,840,000 |
| Doppia Sfida Classic | €5 | 1 in 3.71 | 1 in 7 | 71.5% | €500,000: 1 in 10,080,000 |
| Il Miliardario Mega | €10 | 1 in 3.46 | 1 in 7.21 | 77.9% | €2,000,000: 1 in 8,400,000 |
| Super Numerissimi | €10 | 1 in 3.66 | 1 in 7.69 | 75% | €2,000,000: 1 in 8,640,000 |
| Sotto il Sole | €10 | 1 in 3.21 | 1 in 6.17 | 74.5% | €2,000,000: 1 in 4,080,000 |
| Il Miliardario Maxi | €20 | 1 in 2.99 | 1 in 7.45 | 85% | €5,000,000: 1 in 9,360,000 |
Which scratch cards have the best odds?
In this table, dearer tickets pay back more as a share: 59% on the €1 ticket, about 72% on the €5 ones, 85% on the top €20 ticket. In money, though, the average loss per ticket grows, from 41 cents to €3. No ticket pays back more than it costs on average, and better odds never guarantee a win.
What are your odds with more tickets?
At least one prize above the ticket price
With 5 tickets: 40.3% to find at least one.
You spend €5.00. On average €2.95 comes back.
Simplified: it treats each ticket as independent. This is an average over the whole print run, not a forecast for your tickets.
Scratching with no cash at stake
Gift Club is a game inside Telegram, not a lottery, and it pays no cash prizes. Its Spark scratch card plays for 20 Sparks, the free currency the streak pays every 4 hours, and its prizes are Sparks, Stars and Telegram Gifts. Each prize's details sheet shows its chance. Other cards cost Stars, which are real money, so set your limit first.
Scratch with Sparks
Adults only. No cash prizes: Sparks, Stars and Telegram Gifts.
Open in TelegramIn-app Stars can't be redeemed or withdrawn. 18+.
What are the odds of winning on a scratch card?
It depends on the game. Italy's average is 1 in 3.6 for a cash prize. Its per-ticket tables count prizes equal to the ticket price among the winners.
Do expensive scratch cards have better odds?
They pay back a larger share on average in Italy's tables, but you lose more money per ticket on average, and no ticket is guaranteed.
Can you tell if a scratch card is a winner before scratching?
No. Winners are spread at random, and no serial number or shop pattern reveals them.
Sources
Spark roundTry it in Telegram
Open Gift Club, claim your Sparks and play a Spark round before you stake anything.
Play Gift ClubIn-app Stars can't be redeemed or withdrawn. 18+.
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